Informative Censoring-A Cause of Bias in Estimating COVID-19 Mortality Using Hospital Data.

(1) Background: Several retrospective observational analyzed treatment outcomes for COVID-19; (2) Methods: Inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) was applied to correct for bias due to informative censoring in database of hospitalized patients who did and did not receive convalescent plasma; (3) Results: When compared with an IPCW analysis, overall mortality was overestimated using an unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curve, and hazard ratios for the older age group compared to the youngest were underestimated using the Cox proportional hazard models and 30-day mortality; (4) Conclusions: An IPCW analysis provided stabilizing weights by hospital admission.

Analysis of accumulated SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in North Carolina: The COVID-19 Community Research Partnership.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 Community Research Partnership is a population-based longitudinal syndromic and sero-surveillance study. The study includes over 17,000 participants from six healthcare systems in North Carolina who submitted over 49,000 serology results. The purpose of this study is to use these serology data to estimate the cumulative proportion of the North Carolina population that has either been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or developed a measurable humoral response to vaccination. METHODS: Adult community residents were invited to participate in the study between April 2020 and February 2021. Demographic information was collected and daily symptom screen was completed using a secure, HIPAA-compliant, online portal. A portion of participants were mailed kits containing a lateral flow assay to be used in-home to test for presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM or IgG antibodies. The cumulative proportion of participants who tested positive at least once during the study was estimated. A standard Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to illustrate the probability of seroconversion over time up to December 20, 2020 (before vaccines available). A separate analysis was performed to describe the influence of vaccines through February 15, 2021. RESULTS: 17,688 participants contributed at least one serology result. 68.7% of the population were female, and 72.2% were between 18 and 59 years of age. The average number of serology results submitted per participant was 3.0 (±1.9). By December 20, 2020, the overall probability of seropositivity in the CCRP population was 32.6%. By February 15, 2021 the probability among healthcare workers and non-healthcare workers was 83% and 49%, respectively. An inflection upward in the probability of seropositivity was demonstrated around the end of December, suggesting an influence of vaccinations, especially for healthcare workers. Among healthcare workers, those in the oldest age category (60+ years) were 38% less likely to have seroconverted by February 15, 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study suggest more North Carolina residents may have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 than the number of documented cases as determined by positive RNA or antigen tests. The influence of vaccinations on seropositivity among North Carolina residents is also demonstrated. Additional research is needed to fully characterize the impact of seropositivity on immunity and the ultimate course of the pandemic.

Estimating the number of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated individuals in the United States-January-July, 2021.

As of March 2021, three COVID-19 vaccines had been authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in the United States. Each has substantial efficacy in preventing COVID-19. However, as efficacy from trials was <100% for all three vaccines, disease in vaccinated people is expected to occur. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate the number of symptomatic COVID-19 cases among vaccinated people (vaccine breakthrough infections) based on published vaccine efficacy (VE) data, percent of the population that has been fully vaccinated, and average number of COVID-19 cases reported per day. We estimate that approximately 199,000 symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections (95% CI: ~183,000-214,000 cases) occurred in the United States during January-July 2021 among >156 million fully vaccinated people. With high SARS-CoV-2 transmission and increasing numbers of people vaccinated in the United States, vaccine breakthrough infections will continue to accumulate. Understanding expectations regarding number of vaccine breakthrough infections enables accurate public health messaging to help ensure that the occurrence of such cases does not negatively affect vaccine perceptions, confidence, and uptake.

Implications for Telemedicine for Surgery Patients After COVID-19: Survey of Patient and Provider Experiences.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has expanded the utilization of telemedicine in clinical practice to minimize potential risks to both patients and providers. We aim to describe the perception of telemedicine by both surgical patients and providers to understand the preferences for future incorporation in future surgical practice. METHODS: An anonymous survey was administered to providers that transitioned clinic visits to telemedicine encounters since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the second part of the study, patients who underwent video telemedicine appointments answered survey questions via telephone. RESULTS: Twenty-six out of 36 (72.7%) providers responded. Over 75% reported that they could effectively communicate with patients over telemedicine. Six (23.1%) reported that they could adequately assess surgical sites. Of 361 patients, 187 consented to the study (consent rate 51.8%). Among patients, the most common result to choose a telemedicine appointment was to avoid the risk of COVID-19 transmission (84, 44.9%), though the minority reported that they would choose telemedicine after the pandemic (64, 34.2%). Those patients who would choose an in-person visit were more likely to have a higher Charlson Comorbidity Score, body mass index, and use friends or family for transportation. In open-ended feedback, patients suggested that telemedicine would be better suited for long-term follow-up rather than the immediate postoperative setting. CONCLUSIONS: Patients and providers reported a high degree of satisfaction using telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic but noted concern with limited physical examinations. Telemedicine may be suited for preoperative evaluation and medium-term and long-term postoperative follow-up for surgical patients.